alternativeАльтернативная энергетика и экология (ISJAEE)Alternative Energy and Ecology (ISJAEE)1608-8298Международный издательский дом научной периодики "Спейс10.15518/isjaee.2024.03.110-132alternative-2396Research ArticleX. ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ АЭЭ 24. Экономические аспектыX. ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF AEE 24. Economic AspectsПрогноз инновационной активности по ключевым направлениям технологий энергоперехода на базе анализа патентной активностиForecast of innovation activity in key areas of energy transfer technologies based on the analysis of patent activityhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5287-4397ЖданеевО. В.ZhdaneevO. V.

Жданеев Олег Валерьевич -  ведущий научный сотрудник,  Профессор высшей нефтяной школы, Югорский государственный университет,  доктор технических наук  

 119991, ГСП-1, Москва, Ленинский проспект, 29 

Zhdaneev Oleg - Leading Researcher Topchiev; Professor of the Higher OilSchool,  Doctor of Technical Sciences 

119991, GSP-1, Moscow, Leninsky Prospekt, 29Khanty-Mansiysk, st. Chekhova, 16 

https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9048-7402ОвсянниковИ. Р.OvsyannikovI. R.

 Овсянников Иван Романович - старший эксперт 

 121099, Москва, Новинский бульвар, 13/4 

 Ovsyannikov Ivan -  Senior expert 

121099, Moscow, Novinsky Boulevard, 13/4141701, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region, Russia 

IRovsyannikov@outlook.comФедеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Ордена Трудового Красного Знамени Институт нефтехимического синтеза им. А. В. Топчиева Российской академии наук (ИНХС РАН)РоссияFederal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Order of the Red Banner of Labor Institute of Petrochemical Synthesis named after. A.V. Topchiev Russian Academy of Sciences (INHS RAS); Higher Oil School, Yugra State UniversityRussian FederationАкционерное общество «Центр эксплуатационных услуг»РоссияJoint Stock Company «Operational Services Center»; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University)Russian Federation20240606202403110132Copyright © Международный издательский дом научной периодики "Спейс, 20232023Международный издательский дом научной периодики "СпейсМеждународный издательский дом научной периодики "Спейсhttps://www.isjaee.com/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.isjaee.com/jour/article/view/2396

Технологии энергоперехода, направленные на повышение энергетической эффективности, являются инструментом реализации задач Парижского соглашения по ограничению роста среднегодовой температуры. Для повышения эффективности внедрения данных технологий необходим прогноз инновационной активности по направлениям водородной энергетики, CCUS и информационным технологиям на основе учета ключевых влияющих факторов, вклада секторов классического ТЭК и уровня взаимовлияния стран. На основе проведенного анализа сделан прогноз роста доли сектора международных вертикально-интегрированных нефтяных компаний (ВИНК) в общем количестве патентов по направлению водородной энергетики на 2,5 п.п. и рост доли сектора национальных ВИНК по направлению технологий CCUS на 10 п.п. к 2027 году. Определено, что инновационная активность секторов электроэнергетики и угольной промышленности по технологиям энергоперехода наиболее устойчива к влиянию внешних геополитических и инфраструктурных кризисов. Рынок технологий CCUS в настоящее время более подвержен эффектам от международной кооперации, чем рынок технологий водородной энергетики. Авторами показано, что снижение уровня международной интеграции на 25 п.п. в последние 5 лет приводит к снижению инновационной активности по технологиям энергоперехода на 15 п.п. С целью определения международных барьеров для внедрения технологий, авторами приведен сравнительный анализ уровня взаимовлияния стран в рамках международных экономических объединений на примере ШОС, БРИКС, МЕРКОСУР. Наибольший уровень взаимовлияния выявлен в рамках взаимодействия ШОС. Согласно проведенного анализа, вступление в 2024 году новых стран в БРИКС приведет к снижению интегрального уровня инновационной активности на 30 п.п. от текущего значения и силы взаимовлияния стран на 50 п.п. С учетом выявленной положительной зависимости выручки и инновационной активности по направлению информационных технологий, инвестиции рекомендуется направить преимущественно в пользу решений Индустрии 4.0.

Energy transition technologies aimed at increasing energy efficiency are a tool for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in average annual temperature. To increase the efficiency of implementation of these technologies, it is necessary to forecast innovative activity in the areas of hydrogen energy, CCUS and information technology based on taking into account key influencing factors, the contribution of sectors of the classical fuel and energy complex and the level of mutual influence of countries. Based on the analysis, a forecast was made to increase the share of the sector of international vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) in the total number of patents in the field of hydrogen energy by 2,5 percentage points. and an increase in the share of the national vertically integrated oil company sector in the area of CCUS technologies by 10 percentage points. by 2027. It has been determined that the innovative activity of the electricity and coal industry sectors in energy transition technologies is most resistant to the influence of external geopolitical and infrastructural crises. The market for CCUS technologies is currently more susceptible to the effects of international cooperation than the market for hydrogen energy technologies. The authors show that a decrease in the level of international integration by 25 percentage points. over the past 5 years has led to a decrease in innovative activity in energy transition technologies by 15 percentage points. In order to identify international barriers to the introduction of technologies, the authors provide a comparative analysis of the level of mutual influence of countries within the framework of international economic associations using the examples of the SCO, BRICS, and MERCOSUR. The highest level of mutual influence was identified within the framework of SCO interaction. According to the analysis, the entry of new countries into BRICS in 2024 will lead to a decrease in the integral level of innovation activity by 30 percentage points. from the current value and strength of mutual influence of countries by 50 percentage points. Taking into account the identified positive relationship between revenue and innovative activity in the area of information technology, it is recommended to direct investments primarily in favor of Industry 4,0 solutions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.