Assessment of the Frequency of Wild Fire Hazard (on the Example of the North-Eastern Slope of the Lesser Caucasus)

In Azerbaijan, as in the whole world, the influence of global warming on the environment, including individual ecosystems, and various sectors of the economy is observed. It was emphasized that a comprehensive study of the nature of global and regional climate changes and their impact on ecosystems and habitats, the identification of appropriate diagnostic and prognostic relationships, the development of recommendations and proposals, and the conduct of fundamental and applied research in the field of bioclimatic and environmental processes are the subject of research by scientists and experts of many countries. Ecological systems and their components that are most susceptible to climatic anomalies include, in particular, forests. Forest ecosystems, being part of the biosphere, play an important role in its protection, development and selfregulation, in the formation of the habitat, in the production of various products, and in the prevention of environmental pollution. The article notes that global warming also leads to an increase in the probability of forest fires. The influence of climatic changes on forest ecosystems of the northeastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus was studied and, based on statistical data, the frequency of forest fires was assessed according to the degree of danger. For the first time, spatial and temporal patterns were identified with respect to the northeastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus, a geographical generalization of the horizontal and vertical distribution of climatic parameters was carried out, their features and quantitative variability, geographical vertical distribution of climatic parameters, regional climate change, and the risk of fires in forest ecosystems, the recurrence of periods of drought, the influence of the habitat on bioclimatic parameters. In addition, the trend of variability in the daily precipitation intensity index was estimated. We have determined the period of time during which the maximum values of the absolute maximum and minimum temperatures are observed, which are indicators of extreme weather conditions, as well as the number of days when the maximum temperature exceeds 30 °C.

changing of the climate, forest fires, danger of forest fires, changes in dynamics, northeastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus

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