Прогноз инновационной активности по ключевым направлениям технологий энергоперехода на базе анализа патентной активности

Технологии энергоперехода, направленные на повышение энергетической эффективности, являются инструментом реализации задач Парижского соглашения по ограничению роста среднегодовой температуры. Для повышения эффективности внедрения данных технологий необходим прогноз инновационной активности по направлениям водородной энергетики, CCUS и информационным технологиям на основе учета ключевых влияющих факторов, вклада секторов классического ТЭК и уровня взаимовлияния стран. На основе проведенного анализа сделан прогноз роста доли сектора международных вертикально-интегрированных нефтяных компаний (ВИНК) в общем количестве патентов по направлению водородной энергетики на 2,5 п.п. и рост доли сектора национальных ВИНК по направлению технологий CCUS на 10 п.п. к 2027 году. Определено, что инновационная активность секторов электроэнергетики и угольной промышленности по технологиям энергоперехода наиболее устойчива к влиянию внешних геополитических и инфраструктурных кризисов. Рынок технологий CCUS в настоящее время более подвержен эффектам от международной кооперации, чем рынок технологий водородной энергетики. Авторами показано, что снижение уровня международной интеграции на 25 п.п. в последние 5 лет приводит к снижению инновационной активности по технологиям энергоперехода на 15 п.п. С целью определения международных барьеров для внедрения технологий, авторами приведен сравнительный анализ уровня взаимовлияния стран в рамках международных экономических объединений на примере ШОС, БРИКС, МЕРКОСУР. Наибольший уровень взаимовлияния выявлен в рамках взаимодействия ШОС. Согласно проведенного анализа, вступление в 2024 году новых стран в БРИКС приведет к снижению интегрального уровня инновационной активности на 30 п.п. от текущего значения и силы взаимовлияния стран на 50 п.п. С учетом выявленной положительной зависимости выручки и инновационной активности по направлению информационных технологий, инвестиции рекомендуется направить преимущественно в пользу решений Индустрии 4.0.

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