Investigation of hydrometeorological data for forecasting the condition of permafrost rocks

The article is aimed at studying the impact of climate change on permafrost areas and developing methods
to protect infrastructure, in particular railways, from the negative effects of geocryological processes. The methods
of modeling, remote sensing, geocryological and geophysical studies, as well as the use of unmanned aerial vehicles
to monitor the state of permafrost and the dynamics of permafrost were used. Studies have confirmed the high sensitivity
of permafrost regions to changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios indicate intense warming
and rapid melting of permafrost, which leads to soil degradation, changes in the hydrological regime, greenhouse gas
emissions and destruction of infrastructure. Continuous geocryological monitoring is necessary to ensure reliable
operation of railways in permafrost areas. The creation of engineering geocryological monitoring systems, including
regular monitoring, analysis, assessment and forecasting of changes in permafrost conditions, will allow timely detection
and prevention of undesirable geocryological processes, ensuring stable and safe operation of the railway track.

1. . Uskov I. B. Analysis of the Precipitation-soildrainage system in the context of climate change in the north-west of Russia / Uskov I. B. [et al.] // Scientific Journal of the Russian Research Institute of Land Reclamation Problems. – 2020. – 4 (40). – Pp. 205-226. (in Russ.).

2. . Kondratiev S. A. The impact of future climatic changes on runoff from the Onega Lake catchment area / S. A. Kondratiev, M. V. Shmakova // Proceedings of the Karelian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2022. – No. 6. – Рp. 41-49. (in Russ.).

3. . Siptitz S. O. Model estimates of the climate impact on the yield of cereals and leguminous crops in the regions of Russia / Romanenko I. A., Evdokimova N. E. // Problems of forecasting. – 2021. – No. 2. – Рp. 75-86. (in Russ.).

4. . Porfiriev B. N. Sustainable development, climate and economic growth: strategic challenges and solutions for Russia. St. Petersburg: SPbSUP. – 2020. – Рp. 40-48. (in Russ.).

5. . Akaev A. A. Climate and Energy. Scenarios of the energy transition and changes in global temperature based on modern technologies and trends / A. A. Akaev, Davydova O. I. // History and modernity. – 2022. – Рp. 36-54. (in Russ.).

6. . Khimenkov A. N. Gas-saturated frozen rocks as an object of geocryology study / A. N. Khimenkov, A. V. Koshurnikov, E.O. Dernova // Arctic and Antarctic. – 2023. – No. 1. – Рp. 2-8. (in Russ.).

7. . Gusev E. M. Change in the moisture supply of the territory of river basins located in various regions of the globe in connection with possible climate changes / E. M. Gusev, O. N. Nasonova, E. E. Kovalev // Arid ecosystems – 2021. – Volume 27. – No. 3 (88). – Рp. 3-15. (in Russ.).

8. . Gartsman B. I. Assessment of changes in the flood flow regime of the Ussuri river taking into account modern climatic projections until the end of the XXI century / B. I. Gartsman, S. Yu. Lupakov // Hydrosphere. Dangerous processes and phenomena – 2019. – Рp. 52-69. (in Russ.).

9. . The official website of PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel – [Electronic resource]. Access mode: https:// nornickel.ru / Presentation of the results in the field of sustainable development in 2021. (in Russ.).

10. . Ismayilov G. H. Assessment of possible elements of the annual water balance of the Volga basin / G. H. Ismayilov, V. M. Fedorov // Nature management. – 2010. – № 5. – Pp. 20-27. (in Russ.).

11. . Bulavina A. S. Modeling of the flow of the Ob river under climate change / A. S. Bulavina // Proceedings of the Kola Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2021. – Рp. 19-28. (in Russ.).

12. . Yurchenko V. A. Permafrost: geocryological hazards and regional degradation of frozen soils / V. A. Yurchenko, A. V. Manko // Engineering Bulletin of the Don. – 2023. – No. 8. – Рp. 10-14. (in Russ.).

13. . Diansky N. A. Prognostic estimates of climate change in the Arctic based on a combined solution / N. A. Diansky, I. V. Solomonova, A. V. Gusev // Russian Arctic. – 2019. – No. 4. – Рp. 24-33. (in Russ.).

14. . Gomonov K. G. Economic consequences of changes in the level of the World Ocean for coastal infrastructure / K. G. Gomonov, K. A. Osokina, L. V. Sorokin // Bulletin of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. Series: Economics. – 2015. – Рp. 82-92. (in Russ.).

15. . Summary report to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. – [Electronic resource]. Access mode: https://www.ipcc.ch/ (in Russ.).

16. . Kislov A. V. The influence of global warming on the climatic resources of Russia / A. V. Kislov, G. V. Surkova // Economy. Taxes. Right. – 2021. – № 14(4). – Pp. 6-14. (in Russ.).

17. . Nikanorova A. D. Assessment of water scarcity in the irrigation lands of the Fergana Valley in the context of climate change / A. D. Nikanorova [et al.] // Arid ecosystems. – 2016. – Рp. 31-40. (in Russ.).

18. . Lagutin A. A. The influence of global climatic changes on the climate of Western Siberia in the first half of the XXI Century / A. A. Lagutin, N. V. Volkov, E. Yu. Mordvin // Computational technologies. – 2018. – Volume 23. – No. 4. – Рp. 83-94. (in Russ.).

19. . Eliseev D. O. Transport infrastructure of the Arctic regions of Russia in conditions of permafrost degradation / D. O. Eliseev, Yu. V. Naumova // Economics and Business: theory and practice. – 2019. – Volume 95. – No. 7. – Рp. 20-26. (in Russ.).

20. . Briketova A. A. Geocryological processes affecting the degradation of bases in permafrost conditions / A. A. Briketova, E. G. Tretyakova // Bulletin of Eurasian Science. – 2022. – No. 3. – Рp. 10-16. (in Russ.).

21. . Mastepanov A. M. Climate policy in long-term forecasts of world energy development / A. M. Mastepanov // Energy policy. – 2017. – Volume 10. – No. 4. – Рp. 40-56. (in Russ.).

22. . Yushkov I. V. Formation of the climate agenda as a factor of global politics / I. V. Yushkov // Power. – 2022. – No. 5. – Рp. 25-30. (in Russ.).

23. . Anopchenko T. Y. Global risks in the aspect of socio-ecological safety of national sustainable development / T. Y. Anopchenko [et al.] // Crimean Scientific Bulletin. – 2015. – No. 6. – Рp. 100-126. (in Russ.).

24. . Roginko S. A. At the center of the world discussion: problems of the climate agenda / S. A. Roginko // Modern Europe. – 2019. – No. 6. – Рp. 127-137. (in Russ.).

25. . Fedorov V. M. Climate policy and national security issues of the Russian Federation / V. M. Fedorov // Politics and Society. – 2017. – No. 12. – Рp. 80-88. (in Russ.).

26. . Mashnenkov D. V. Prospects of using UAVs in logistics / D. V. Mashnenkov // Innovations and investments. – 2023. – No. 6. – Рp. 168-171. (in Russ.).

27. . Borisov E. A. The use of UAVs in cadastral activities / E. A. Borisov // International Journal of Humanities and Natural Sciences. – 2024. – Рp. 59-63. (in Russ.).

28. . Kondakov N. D. The purpose of UAVs in various fields of tasks / N. D. Kondakov // Bulletin of the Bashkir State Pedagogical University named after M. Akmulla. – 2023. – Рp. 212-216. (in Russ.).

29. . Tatevosyan A. G. The history of the development of architecture in the Arctic / A. G. Tatevosyan // The economics of construction. – 2023. – No. 1. – Рp. 125-132. (in Russ.).

30. . Asadov H. G. Method of calculating broadband albedo values of the Earth’s surface / H. G. Asadov, A. J. Aliyeva, M. G. Ashrafov // Aerospace engineering and technologies. – 2024. – Vol. 2. – No. 2. – Рp. 78-86. (in Russ.).

31. . Nikolaeva O. V. Restoration of surface albedo according to high spatial resolution data / O. V. Nikolaeva // Computer optics. – 2022. – № 46(3). – Pp. 406-414. (in Russ.).

32. . Baykalov N. S. The program of economic development of the BAM zone: ideas, approaches, solutions / N. S. Baykalov // Proceedings of the Institute of History, Archeology and Ethnography FEB RAS. – 2024. – Volume 45. – Рр. 25-47. (in Russ.).

33. . Bayonets V. I. On the dependence of the soil freezing process on humidity / V. I. Shtykov, A. B. Ponomarev, Yu. G. Yanko // Proceedings of the St. Petersburg University of Railway Engineering. – 2024. – Vol. 21. – No. 1. – Рp. 22-31. (in Russ.).

34. . Lavrov S. A. The impact of climate change on seasonal thawing and the water regime of soils in the permafrost zone / S. A. Lavrov // Water management of Russia: problems, technologies, management. – 2022. – No. 4. – Рp. 59-68. (in Russ.).